Robust Inference of Trees

This paper is concerned with the reliable inference of optimal tree-approximations to the dependency structure of an unknown distribution generating data. The traditional approach to the problem measures the dependency strength between random variables by the index called mutual information. In this paper reliability is achieved by Walley's imprecise Dirichlet model, which generalizes Bayesian learning with Dirichlet priors. Adopting the imprecise Dirichlet model results in posterior interval expectation for mutual information, and in a set of plausible trees consistent with the data. Reliable inference about the actual tree is achieved by focusing on the substructure common to all the plausible trees. We develop an exact algorithm that infers the substructure in time O(m^4), m being the number of random variables. The new algorithm is applied to a set of data sampled from a known distribution. The method is shown to reliably infer edges of the actual tree even when the data are very scarce, unlike the traditional approach. Finally, we provide lower and upper credibility limits for mutual information under the imprecise Dirichlet model. These enable the previous developments to be extended to a full inferential method for trees.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

How the dual process model of human cognition can inform efforts to de-implement ineffective and harmful clinical practices: A preliminary model of unlearning and substitution

Analysis and support of clinical decision makin

Swarm Cognition and Artificial Life

Abstract. Swarm Cognition is the juxtaposition of two relatively un-related concepts that evoke, on the one hand, the power of collective behaviours displayed by natural swarms, and on the other hand the com-plexity of cognitive processes in the vertebrate brain. Recently, scientists from various disciplines suggest that, at a certain level of description, op-erational principles used to account for the behaviour of natural swarms may turn out to be extremely powerful tools to identify the neuroscien-tific basis of cognition. In this paper, we review the most recent studies in this direction, and propose an integration of Swarm Cognition with Artificial Life, identifying a roadmap for a scientific and technological breakthrough in Cognitive Sciences.

Measurement of inclusive and differential cross sections for single top quark production in association with a W boson in proton-proton collisions at s \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

International audienceMeasurements of the inclusive and normalised differential cross sections are presented for the production of single top quarks in association with a W boson in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The data used were recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC during 2016–2018, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Events containing one electron and one muon in the final state are analysed. For the inclusive measurement, a multivariate discriminant, exploiting the kinematic properties of the events is used to separate the signal from the dominant $\textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}$ background. A cross section of $79.2\pm 0.9{\left(\textrm{stat}\right)}_{-8.0}^{+7.7}\left(\textrm{syst}\right)\pm 1.2\left(\textrm{lumi}\right)$ pb is obtained, consistent with the predictions of the standard model. For the differential measurements, a fiducial region is defined according to the detector acceptance, and the requirement of exactly one jet coming from the fragmentation of a bottom quark. The resulting distributions are unfolded to particle level and agree with the predictions at next-to-leading order in perturbative quantum chromodynamics.[graphic not available: see fulltext

Measurement of the Higgs boson inclusive and differential fiducial production cross sections in the diphoton decay channel with pp collisions at s \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

International audienceThe measurements of the inclusive and differential fiducial cross sections of the Higgs boson decaying to a pair of photons are presented. The analysis is performed using proton-proton collisions data recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb$^{−1}$. The inclusive fiducial cross section is measured to be ${\sigma}_{\textrm{fid}}={73.4}_{-5.3}^{+5.4}{\left(\textrm{stat}\right)}_{-2.2}^{+2.4}\left(\textrm{syst}\right)$ fb, in agreement with the standard model expectation of 75.4 ± 4.1 fb. The measurements are also performed in fiducial regions targeting different production modes and as function of several observables describing the diphoton system, the number of additional jets present in the event, and other kinematic observables. Two double differential measurements are performed. No significant deviations from the standard model expectations are observed.[graphic not available: see fulltext